Brighter Buying

From doom to boom: latest CBA house price forecast

by Kate Watt, Marketing Manager 10 September 2020

Just a few months ago horror headlines tipped a 32 per cent property price crash in a “worst-case scenario” Commonwealth Bank forecast.

Fast forward to September and the banking giant says we’ve actually seen a “best-case scenario” in all states but Victoria and prices will likely rise in the second half of 2021.

CBA is now forecasting average capital city price falls of just 6 per cent, then a rise of 3 per cent in 2021, the ABC reports.

Record low interest rates, courtesy of Australia’s Reserve Bank, were a key contributor to our resilient housing market, CBA’s head of Australian economics Gareth Aird.

“The RBA has tended to play down the influence of monetary policy decisions on dwelling prices,” he said.

“But we believe that changes in interest rates are the single most important driver of real property prices over the longer run.”

Low interest rates were also driving heightened first home buyer and refinancing activity in Australia’s property market.

ABS data for July showed first home buyers accounted for one in three new owner occupier loans, with total new loan commitments up 12 per cent on the same time last year.

With fewer investors to battle, and some great government incentives, now is proving a popular time for first home buyers to have a crack at the market.

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