Brighter Buying

Market Update: Will house prices really drop by a third?

by Justin Watt, CEO 24 March 2022

Talk of interest rate rises in the year ahead has prompted predictions of a house price drop from some of Australia’s leading economists.

Some number-lovers have even posed a whopping 30% price drop.

An article on cites an RBA research paper which showed that for ever 1 per cent drop in the official interest rate, housing prices increased by 30 per cent over three years.

So the reverse must be true right? In truth, no one has a crystal ball to make that prediction.

We do know that falling interest rates can increase housing values because buyers can borrow more.

Conversely rising interest rates reduce borrowing limits and can slow price growth, or even see prices drop.

So what’s likely to happen with interest rates and property values over the next couple of years?

On a national level. Westpac recently predicted a potential 14% drop nationally over 2023 and 2024.

The Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank predicted a more conservative 10% drop over the same.

These banks also predicted massive drops at the beginning of COVID and boy they were wrong there, so as this is a potential, we always take these predictions with a grain of salt.

So what’s on the cards for Brisbane house prices in the coming years?

Many property commentators are still predicting Brissie to lead the nation in housing market growth.

Particularly with our relative affordability – and the pull of the 2032 Olympics – counteracting some of the economic handbrakes affecting other markets.

Want to buy in an affordable city with growth prospects?

View our current listings for sale or talk to us about selling.